Ricacorp Properties president Liao Wai Keung believes that the expected decline in interest rates next year will help boost the property market, and is optimistic that property prices in the New Territories will outperform the market.
House prices rose first and then fell this year. Liao Weiqiang recalled that the property market performed well from January to May this year, with house prices rising. However, the continuous interest rate hikes in the United States and problems in the domestic real estate market in the second half of the year made the outlook uncertain and house prices fell.
House prices have also been falling in the past two years, raising concerns about whether the property market will enter an adjustment cycle. He analyzed that the housing price has adjusted by about 20%, but if the background is different from the housing price crash in 1998, "the speculation was fierce at that time and it was beyond the affordability level. There is no speculation in the market now, and the mortgage ratio is also at a healthy level. There is no crisis in the property market, and the HKMA has also issued guidance that as long as mortgage payments are made on time, banks will not call in loans, and the property market is still healthy."
The interest rate is closely related to house prices. He pointed out that the Federal Reserve has not raised interest rates for three consecutive times, reflecting that the interest rate is stable, and earlier it even hinted that there is a chance to cut interest rates by 0.75% in 2024. When interest rates stabilize and are expected to fall back next year, the property market will be boosted. "The biggest negative factor in the market at present is the high interest rates, which makes investors and users less willing to enter the market. Even if there are buyers with rigid demand, The pace will also slow down. When interest rates stabilize, buyers will regain confidence and gradually enter the market to find what they want. ”
In addition, he is confident that Hong Kong's economy will recover next year. "After all, high interest rates are not good for business and the stock market. In addition, Hong Kong's economic development is expected to be improved due to the supply of foreign workers, and the operation of various industries will be more complete." As for the property prices next year, he analyzed that from the perspective of investors, the interest rate of fixed deposits will gradually decrease, which will greatly reduce the attractiveness. However, at the same time, the falling property prices and rising rents will make the rental return rate of properties more considerable. It is expected to attract more investors to take the opportunity to "fish at the bottom".
The government eased its measures on the property market in its policy address. He believes this has boosted the transaction of luxury homes worth more than 10 million yuan, and said that if the government withdraws all the tough measures in the future, it will have a more positive impact on the property market.
In terms of districts, he is very optimistic about the New Territories. "There is no doubt that all new developments in Hong Kong will be in the New Territories, including the northern metropolitan area. Because there is more land in the New Territories, it is conducive to large-scale development. As the New Territories are gradually becoming popular among young people, The new development is popular and I believe the price increase will outperform the market." At the same time, Kai Tak itself is also in good condition, but there are still a large number of units to be sold, which will take time to digest.